Forex Signals Brief for Oct 21: The Stimulus Games Keep ...

AUD/USD Market News on 21 August 2018: Down Trend The AUD/USD currecypair is currently trading around 0.73506. It has bearish outlook. The rate has down trend. Keep for updates! #marketscube #forex #currencypair #aud #usd #audusd #fx #forextrading #trading #news

AUD/USD Market News on 21 August 2018: Down Trend The AUD/USD currecypair is currently trading around 0.73506. It has bearish outlook. The rate has down trend. Keep for updates! #marketscube #forex #currencypair #aud #usd #audusd #fx #forextrading #trading #news submitted by Markets-Cube to u/Markets-Cube [link] [comments]

Read Carefully Experts!

This may appear to be a noob question, but read on carefully and please try and understand the point I'm trying to make! I'm hoping your answers might be helpful to people both learning Forex and looking to get into it, so please don't hate on me for this post.
I am relatively new to FX and have learned about break and retest strategies, MACD crossovers and stop losses below structure and risk to reward ratios (usually going for 1:1 or 2/3:1) and so on. I say this only so you know I've a general (very basic) understanding of charts, price action etc.
I definitely do NOT expect to step into the markets and instantly win a majority of my trades, however, to illustrate my thoughts please note the example below.
If I am winning 2% on a winning trade and losing 1% on a losing trade (2:1 reward risk per trade), a strategy that wins just 50% of the time trading once per trading day would be +10% each month. (10 days of -1%, 10 days of +2%). +10% is a HUGE increase in accounts and if a $1000 account was +10% per month for 12 months the end of year balance would be over $3138.43 or a 213.84% return!
This leads me to a theory that almost NO system can be returning 50% on a 2:1 reward risk, even with careful trade selection (let's say I monitor the 7 major pairs, gold and GBP/JPY as I do and pick one entry a day) Am I wrong? I appreciate it is a hypothetical example designed to make a point, but my thoughts are if you monitored lots of pairs and took only ONE entry a day, we might expect to win 50% of the time.
Let's expand this further. I have seen numerous algos (can't name them but looking like they win at LEAST 50% of the time) which tempt me because they appear to indicate moves I could jump on and where I could pull a bunch of pips out of the market. However, there surely cannot be a holy grail or are people making this type of insane return? It cannot be as easy as buying an algo, signing up to $300,000 worth of FTMO funding and earning 10% per month for an easy $21,000 per month income with profit share. Or maybe it is and I'm just cynical?! I end up getting tempted by courses etc. in the hope that if I spent £400 on a good course it would open the door to what I need to do, but I'm nervous this is just another huge mistake.
I genuinely would love to trade Forex for a living. Really I would. I hope it's possible and I hope to learn a strategy I can wash, rinse and repeat. I love watching videos and live streamers who seem to have a great understanding of what's going on but I wonder if it's really possible. It seems a million miles away but I'm determined to keep learning and trading.
Reading your considered thoughts to this post would be helpful for me and I'm sure others and thank you for reading it.
submitted by mal4291 to Forex [link] [comments]

I Automated & Backtested ParallaxFX Strategy

I am a Software Engineer / Data Scientist and I decided to give a go at automating a strategy based on the ParallaxFX strategy floating around and backtests the results, also due to some inspiration by Vanguer
 
I backtested on the majors 4H timeframe between January 2015 to January 2020.
 
I am only considering trades from the top and bottom bands for now.
 
My trading criteria is:
 
Upper Band
Indecision candle
Setup candle
 
Lower Band
Indecision candle
Setup candle
 
Entry: 38.2 Fib
Stop Loss: 100 Fib
Take Profit: -161.8 Fib
RRR: 3.23
 
If a candle meets my trade criteria I open the trade and forget about it.
 
I started with a balance of 500 EUR and a risk of 1%. The results use compound gain / loss and I only considered one currency pair at a time.
 
The results were not that impressive...
EUUSD
AUD/USD
GBP/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/CHF
 
Due to this being automated I can test a variety of parameters pretty quickly and come back with trading screenshots, results, etc.
 
I am considering a higher timeframe but the number of trades is already fairly low.
 
Here is a link to a Google Drive (https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/16cO0ZSCGakkbK90lh-FBIC3ZJIxOj9fI?usp=sharing) with screenshots from each trade and a log of the system as it makes the trades. The candles highlighted in yellow / purple are where the trade is entered. I do not have the picture marked as a win / lose but it should be obvious by the candle formation.
submitted by TribeFX to Forex [link] [comments]

H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

And now for the fun. Results!

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

Pairs

  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/CHF
  3. AUD/JPY
  4. AUD/NZD
  5. AUD/USD
  6. CAD/CHF
  7. CAD/JPY
  8. CHF/JPY
  9. EUAUD
  10. EUCAD
  11. EUCHF
  12. EUGBP
  13. EUJPY
  14. EUNZD
  15. EUUSD
  16. GBP/AUD
  17. GBP/CAD
  18. GBP/CHF
  19. GBP/JPY
  20. GBP/NZD
  21. GBP/USD
  22. NZD/CAD
  23. NZD/CHF
  24. NZD/JPY
  25. NZD/USD
  26. USD/CAD
  27. USD/CHF
  28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:

Demo Trading Results

Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc).
A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade.
I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!

Live Trading Results

I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
submitted by ForexBorex to Forex [link] [comments]

Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.

Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.
Sup retards, back at it with the DD/macro.
scroll to the rain man stuff after the crayons if you don't care about the why or how.
TLDR:
June 19 $250 SPY puts
May 20 $4 USO puts
SPY under 150 by January next year.

So I was going about my business, trying to not $ROPE myself as my sweet tendies I made during the waterfall of March have evaporated, however, I heard that the fed was adding another $2.3T in monopoly money to the bankers pile specifically to help facilitate these loan programs being rolled out.
In short, they are backing these dumb-ass, zero recourse, federally mandated, loans with printing press money.
But cumguzzler OP, your title is about inflation and guage simp--try, why are you talking about the fed #ban.
Well, when you print money it is an inflationary action in theory. Let me explain.

EDUMACATION TIME

What is inflation? Inflation is the sustained increase in the price level in goods and services. Inflation is derived from a general price index, and in the US, from the consumer price index. Knowing that inflation is an outcome, not a set policy is very important. Inflation is a measurement after the fact, much like your technical astrology indicators. (**ps, use order flow in your TA you wizards**)
HOWEVER, the actual act of buying bundles of these loans does not directly impact inflation.
Now what is Gauge symmetry? Gauge symmetry is a function of math and theoretical physics that can be applied to finance models. What a gauge is, is a measurement. Gauge symmetry is when the underlying variable of something changes, however, we do not observe that variable change.
A great example of this is if you and a friend are moving, and your friend is holding a box of tendies. The box is a cube, equal on all sides. If you turn away for a moment and she rotates the cube 90 degrees while you are not looking, and you look back - you would have no idea the cube was rotated. There was a very real change in the position of the cube in relation to space-time. Your friend acted on it. But you didn't measure it, in fact it would be impossible for you to determine if the box was changed at all if you weren't observing it. That movement of the box where you didn't observe it, is called gauge transformation and happens literally more then JPow fucks my mom in quantum physics. The object observably exactly the same even though it is not physically the same. The act of it existing as an observably the same box is gauge symmetry - it is by observation symmetrical.
Why this is important, is that fiat money doesn't have any absolute meaning. The value of $1 is arbitrary. furthermore, Inflation is a Guage symmetry. Inflation has no real impact on the real value of the underlying goods and services, but rather serves as a metric to measure the shift of value across a timeline.
When JPow starts pluggin' your mom along with all these balance sheets, there is a gauge symmetry event happening. The money he is printing is entering the system (gauge transformation), this isn't an issue if all pricing against the USD get shifted equally, however, the market is not accounting for this money because we don't have real-time data on what is being applied where, we only get a slow drip in terms of weekly and monthly reports. WE HAVE OUR EYES CLOSED. This is a gauge symmetry event.
When this happens in real terms, the market becomes dislocated from its real value price. Well how do we know there is a dislocation?
"YoU JuSt SaId tHe UnDeRlYiNg VaLuE iZ AbStRaCkKt HuRr QE aNd MaRkEtS Iz ComPlEx ReAd A TeXtBuK AbOuT FrAcTiOnAl ReSErVe BanKiNg YoU NeRd." - **anyone rationalizing the bull run**
We can look at Forex you fish.
USD lives in a bubble. The Yen is in a bubble, the RMB is in a bubble, and we exchange with each other. the Jap central bank has little effect on the CPI index (cost of goods and services) of the US. If the Yen prints a gazillion dollars, the USD is not effected EXCEPT in its exchange rate. YEN:USD would see a sizeable differential the more Yen is printed and vise-versa.
So NOW instead of JPow getting away with plowing your girlfriend, we can catch the bitch.
Instead of looking at the gauge transformation at face value and then giving up because it is symmetrical output, we can look and see if this gauge symmetry carries over to the foreign exchange market. Well guess what happens when you look at the value of the USD against foreign currencies.
Consistent uncertainty during the fed operations. Meaning the market of banks that partake in FX swaps don't know where to spot the USD. Generally a very very bad thing.
Value of the USD to Euro 2017-2020, notice the slow decline, then the chaos at the end
Above is the value of the USD to Euro, notice the sloping decline. The dollar has been growing weaker since 2017. At the end you see our present issues, lets #ENHANCE
USD to Euro, January 2020 to Present
When you see those spikes, those are days in between Fed action. The value of the US goes up when the fed doesn't print because people aren't spending. Non-spending is a deflationary event and has a direct impact on the CPI. However, each drop when you line up the dates, was a date of Fed spending.
Lets look outside of the Eurozone.

This is the RMB to USD. Yes China manipulates, but look at the end of the graph
China manipulated rates early in 2018 however you can see the steady incline upward towards the of 2018. More specifically, lets look at it since December.
RMB value against USD, January to Now
You Can see the Chinese RMB has been gaining steam since December, even with Chinese production falling off a cliff all through this pandemic.

What this rain man level autism means for the economy.

Looking across the board at Forex we can see the USD having a schizo panic attack jumping up and down like me at a mathematics lecture.
But what does all this gauge BDSM and shit have to do with the markets? Well it shows 1 of 3 things are occuring.
  1. The fed is printing money to offset deflationary pressures of the economy being fuk for the past month, and therefore all this printing is offset by the loss of liquidity throughout the system and we are all retared. (SECRET: THIS IS WHAT ALL THE INSTITUTIONS THINK IS HAPPENING AND WE WILL ALL BE FINE.)
  2. The deflationary event is overplayed, and JPow just is nailing his coffin together. This would result in long term hyperinflation similiar to the Weimar republic. The only hedge against this is to load up on strong currency that do not manipulate and have enough distance from US markets that they can have some safety (ironically the Ruble is the safest currency. Low link to the USD and not influenced by China, and on discount rn)
  3. The gauge transformation is actually not as severe as they are blurting out, the fed does not pass go, does not actually print 10 Trillion dollars, and this was all a marketing ploy to not get Trump involved and prop markets. In this case, the real deflationary event is real, the USD red rockets harder then my cock and we end up market-wise at a very high asset price in relation to real value. This one is most dangerous because it increases the real value of debt and has mass dislocation between real value and market cap. You took debt at a fixed interest rate and a fixed principal, this would cause the biggest GUH in history when all of a sudden you are $100 million in debt and your revenue was $50 million a year ago, but now is only $25 million. That $100 million in debt is still $100 million and now you have a credit crisis because past values of money were inflated. This spirals into a large scale solvency crisis of any company utilizing current growth methodology (levering up to your tits in debt)
In only 1 of these 3 scenarios do we see any sort of "good" outcome? That would be the offset of deflationary pressures.
It is very important to understand that inflation is only a measurement, and itself does not denote value of real goods and services.

Option 1 of a print fiesta that works (something similar to 1981-82) seems possible. A similar environment and reaction occured in the early 80s when the government brute-forced a bull run using these same offset theorems but in that situation, Volker at the fed had interest rates at 21.5% and had 20% to come down to stimulate the inflationary reaction.
Long term this would just lever up more debt and expanded the real wealth gap over time because we kicked the can down the road another 15 years. If that happens again socioeconomically I don't see capitalism surviving (yeah Im on my high horse get over it). This is the option that many fiscal policymakers and talking heads abide by and the reason why the markets are green. However, it is really just kicking it down the road and expanding real wealth inequality. You think Bernie Sanders is bad, wait until homes cost $3million dollars in Kentucky and AOC Jr comes around.

If we get option 2, we see hyperinflation and we turn into Zimbabwe, which is great, I've always wanted to see Africa. Long term we could push interest rate back to 1980 Volker levels and slowly revalue the US against real value commodities already pegged to the USD like oil. This would be a short term shock but because of international reliance on the USD system, we could slowly de-lever this inflation over 2-3 years and be back to normal capacity although the markets would blow their O-ring. Recession yes, but no long term depression.

If we get option 3, the worst long term option in my opinion, basically any company with any revolver line drawn down when that hits is going to go under, private equity won't touch it with a 20ft stick because cashflows couldn't possibly handle the debt on the end of the lever, and we see mass long term unemployment. The only way out of the spiral of option three is inflationary pressure from the fed+government, but because we are already so far down the rabbit hole at the current moment there's no fucking way we could print another 10 trillion. USD treasuries couldn't handle the guh and we would essentially be functionally forced into a long term (7-10 year) depression because nothing anyone could do would delever the value of the dollar. This would result in the long term collapse of the United States as a world power and would render us like Russia in 1991.

Thank you for coming to my ted talk.
submitted by TaxationIsTh3ft to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Weekly Wrap: This Week In Chainlink July 20 - July 26

Weekly Wrap: This Week In Chainlink July 20 - July 26. What a week! Check out this weekly wrap-up of all that has been accomplished in the Chainlink community.

Announcements and Integrations 🎉

SmartCon will feature the top minds and builders of smart contracts and celebrate our incredible community, thriving ecosystem & cutting-edge research. Experience a mix of keynotes, panel discussions, live demos, developer workshops, and networking with the community. We made registration complimentary so everyone can participate.

We’re thrilled to welcome DeutscheTelekom’s TSystems_MMS IT Services group to Chainlink. Tsystemscom’s world-class infrastructure team secures a large amount of enterprise value today & is now on mainnet helping secure Chainlink’s oracle network.

Top Korean banks: Hana Bank, Shinhan Bank, Nonghyup Bank, and Industrial Bank of Korea select Chainlink and CenterPrime to bring their forex data on-chain, transforming the capabilities of open banking services, fintech and DeFi.

Binance Smart Chain has integrated Chainlink as its oracle live on testnet! Using Chainlink gives devs access to off-chain data (e.g. Binance_DEX), enabling them to build DeFi dApps for derivatives, crypto payments, automated asset management and more.

Reflexer (@MetaCoinProject) has successfully integrated Chainlink's ETH/USD Price Reference Data as the basis for collateralization checks on their first Generalized Ethereum Bond (reflex bond) RAI—a low volatility, trust minimized collateral for DeFi.

Blockchain-based e-document solution @FirmaChain is integrating Chainlink to create more seamless digital contracts. For example, car rental contracts using Chainlink to validate driver licenses within the signature process for better customer experience.

Blockchain platform Elastos blockchain is launching a Chainlink-powered ELA/USD Price Reference Data feed to use for collateralization checks on its upcoming cross-chain stablecoin. This is one of many advanced dApps possible on Elastos using real-world data.

TinyboxesETH is using ChainlinkVRF to create Tiny Boxes, randomized & animated generative art pieces that, from creation to curation, exist fully on-chain for collectors to enjoy. They will also use Chainlink price oracles for minting pieces w/ crypto.

Chainlink's ENJ/ETH Price Reference Feed is live on mainnet! Gaming developers can use this reliable price feed when minting or exchanging Enjin-based digital assets.

Chainlink's REN/ETH Price Reference Feed is live on mainnet. DeFi developers utilizing REN in their dApp now have access to a secure and reliable price oracle. This is just one of many Chainlink oracles available today.

Featured Videos & Educational Pieces 🎥

Join the MCDEX team and Chainlink for a video Q&A is with Gareth the DaoChemist (https://twitter.com/daochemist), Head of Business Development of MCDEX. The discussion will be centered on MCDEX integration with Chainlink and a deep-dive into MCDEX's launch of liquidity mining.

Join the Vite Labs team and Chainlink for a video Q&A is with Richard Yan, the Co-founder, and COO of Vite Labs. The discussion will be centered on 1) Why ViteX has better performance than other DEXs, 2) ViteX's approach to trans and liquidity mining where the coins earned entitle users to proceeds from the exchange, 3) Future plans for ViteX.

Watch this community workshop featuring an AMA with LinkPool’s head of business development, Ian Read. In the video, they discuss the future roadmap for LinkPool, how to become a node operator, and best practices for running a node.

Ecosystem & Community Celebrations 👏

Upcoming Events 📅

Are you interested in hosting your own meetup? Apply to become a Chainlink Community Advocate today: https://events.chain.link/advocate

SmartContract is hiring to build Chainlink’s network: Check out these open roles 👩‍💼

View all open roles at https://careers.smartcontract.com
submitted by linkedkeenan to Chainlink [link] [comments]

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submitted by ViralMedia007 to FREECoursesEveryday [link] [comments]

40 Jobs in qc Hiring Now!

Company Name Title City
Maverick FX Maverick FX: Remote Foreign Currencey Trader Job In Amos, Qc Part Time Amos
Maverick FX Maverick FX: Remote Forex Trader Job In Amos, Qc Part Time Amos
Maverick FX Maverick FX: Remote Forex Trader Job In Amos, Qc Full Time Amos
United Parcel Service United Parcel Service Is Now Re-Hiring For United Parcel Service Warehouse Worker Package Handler Beaconsfield
United Parcel Service United Parcel Service Warehouse Worker Package Handler - United Parcel Service Beaconsfield
Robert Half Robert Half: Représentant Au Service À La Clientèle/Customer Service Rep Beaconsfield
Robert Half Robert Half: Coordonnateur Des Ressources Humaines/Hr Coordinator Beaconsfield
Aveanna Healthcare Aveanna Healthcare: Registered Nurse (Rn) Beaconsfield
Cold Lake Bus Lines Cold Lake Bus Lines: School Bus Driver - St. Paul, Ab Beauharnois
Arise Virtual Solutions Arise Virtual Solutions: Home Based Customer Service Agent Beauharnois
First Student Canada First Student Canada: School Bus Driver - Stratford, On Beaulac-Garthby
Olymel Olymel: Mécanicien Industriel Berthierville
Olymel Olymel: Manoeuvre À La Transformation Des Aliments Berthierville
Olymel Olymel: Mécanicien Lubrificateur - Fds Berthierville
UPS UPS: Travail Entrepot (Blainville) 17: 30-21: 00 Nouveau Salaire Blainville
Procom Procom: Erp Lead Consultant / Solution Architect - Microsoft Dynamics 36 Blainville
Veos Veos: Associé(E) Aux Ventes Blainville
Dicom - GLS Logistics Systems Canada Ltd Dicom - GLS Logistics Systems Canada Ltd: Chauffeur De Ville (City Driver) Blainville
Veos Veos: Conseiller / Conseillère Aux Ventes Blainville
Veos Veos: Installateur Blainville
Aerotek Aerotek: General Labor Bois-Des-Filion
The Home Depot The Home Depot: Associé Aux Ventes Boisbriand
O'Sole Mio O'Sole Mio: Manutentionnaire Cariste Boisbriand
O'Sole Mio O'Sole Mio: Cariste Boisbriand
O'Sole Mio O'Sole Mio: Conducteur De Chariot Élévateur Boisbriand
Fuze HR Solutions Fuze HR Solutions: Travailleuse Générale – Boisbriand
Fuze HR Solutions Fuze HR Solutions: Prepose De Production À Boisbriand – $16 À $17 Boisbriand
Fuze HR Solutions Fuze HR Solutions: Journalier(E) Alimentaire – Boisbriand – $17 A $18 Boisbriand
Aerotek Aerotek: General Labor Boisbriand
Robert Half Robert Half: Analyste Technique Principal (Support Devops) Boucherville
Provigo Provigo: Préparateur De Commande Boucherville
Franklin Empire Franklin Empire: Journalier Boucherville
Carrousel Carrousel: Agent Service À La Clientèle Boucherville
Franklin Empire Franklin Empire: Representant Ventes Internes Boucherville
Franklin Empire Franklin Empire: Skilled Worker Boucherville
Fraser Health Fraser Health: Clinical Pharmacist Bristol
Fraser Health Fraser Health: Occupational Therapist, Mental Health & Substance Use Services Bristol
Fraser Health Fraser Health: Licensed Practical Nurse, Full Scope Bristol
Prévost architectural Prévost architectural: Aide-Monteur / Aide À La Production Brossard
Provigo Provigo: Préparateur De Commande Brossard
Hey guys, here are some recent job openings in QC. Feel free to comment here or send me a private message if you have any questions, I'm at the community's disposal! If you encounter any problems with any of these job openings please let me know that I will modify the table accordingly. Thanks!
submitted by DramaticPatience0 to EmploisauQuebec [link] [comments]

40 Jobs in qc Hiring Now!

Company Name Title City
Maverick FX Maverick FX: Remote Foreign Currencey Trader Job In Amos, Qc Part Time Amos
Maverick FX Maverick FX: Remote Forex Trader Job In Amos, Qc Part Time Amos
Maverick FX Maverick FX: Remote Forex Trader Job In Amos, Qc Full Time Amos
United Parcel Service United Parcel Service Is Now Re-Hiring For United Parcel Service Warehouse Worker Package Handler Beaconsfield
United Parcel Service United Parcel Service Warehouse Worker Package Handler - United Parcel Service Beaconsfield
Robert Half Robert Half: Représentant Au Service À La Clientèle/Customer Service Rep Beaconsfield
Robert Half Robert Half: Coordonnateur Des Ressources Humaines/Hr Coordinator Beaconsfield
Aveanna Healthcare Aveanna Healthcare: Registered Nurse (Rn) Beaconsfield
Cold Lake Bus Lines Cold Lake Bus Lines: School Bus Driver - St. Paul, Ab Beauharnois
Arise Virtual Solutions Arise Virtual Solutions: Home Based Customer Service Agent Beauharnois
First Student Canada First Student Canada: School Bus Driver - Stratford, On Beaulac-Garthby
Olymel Olymel: Mécanicien Industriel Berthierville
Olymel Olymel: Manoeuvre À La Transformation Des Aliments Berthierville
Olymel Olymel: Mécanicien Lubrificateur - Fds Berthierville
UPS UPS: Travail Entrepot (Blainville) 17: 30-21: 00 Nouveau Salaire Blainville
Procom Procom: Erp Lead Consultant / Solution Architect - Microsoft Dynamics 36 Blainville
Veos Veos: Associé(E) Aux Ventes Blainville
Dicom - GLS Logistics Systems Canada Ltd Dicom - GLS Logistics Systems Canada Ltd: Chauffeur De Ville (City Driver) Blainville
Veos Veos: Conseiller / Conseillère Aux Ventes Blainville
Veos Veos: Installateur Blainville
Aerotek Aerotek: General Labor Bois-Des-Filion
The Home Depot The Home Depot: Associé Aux Ventes Boisbriand
O'Sole Mio O'Sole Mio: Manutentionnaire Cariste Boisbriand
O'Sole Mio O'Sole Mio: Cariste Boisbriand
O'Sole Mio O'Sole Mio: Conducteur De Chariot Élévateur Boisbriand
Fuze HR Solutions Fuze HR Solutions: Travailleuse Générale – Boisbriand
Fuze HR Solutions Fuze HR Solutions: Prepose De Production À Boisbriand – $16 À $17 Boisbriand
Fuze HR Solutions Fuze HR Solutions: Journalier(E) Alimentaire – Boisbriand – $17 A $18 Boisbriand
Aerotek Aerotek: General Labor Boisbriand
Robert Half Robert Half: Analyste Technique Principal (Support Devops) Boucherville
Provigo Provigo: Préparateur De Commande Boucherville
Franklin Empire Franklin Empire: Journalier Boucherville
Carrousel Carrousel: Agent Service À La Clientèle Boucherville
Franklin Empire Franklin Empire: Representant Ventes Internes Boucherville
Franklin Empire Franklin Empire: Skilled Worker Boucherville
Fraser Health Fraser Health: Clinical Pharmacist Bristol
Fraser Health Fraser Health: Occupational Therapist, Mental Health & Substance Use Services Bristol
Fraser Health Fraser Health: Licensed Practical Nurse, Full Scope Bristol
Prévost architectural Prévost architectural: Aide-Monteur / Aide À La Production Brossard
Provigo Provigo: Préparateur De Commande Brossard
Hey guys, here are some recent job openings in QC. Feel free to comment here or send me a private message if you have any questions, I'm at the community's disposal! If you encounter any problems with any of these job openings please let me know that I will modify the table accordingly. Thanks!
submitted by DramaticPatience0 to EmploisauQuebec [link] [comments]

Explanation of the charts I posted earlier

I'll try to explain. The context is the concept of purchasing power parity: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/fliz8m/purchasing_power_parity_ppp_in_fx/
The concept is that the numbers themselves can tell you a lot, for example, the rate of a pair, say AUD/CAD specifically state what the AUDJPY and CADJPY should be. The AUDCAD is 0.83183 which means 1 CAD is equal to 1.20216 AUD. So however many JPY you can get for a AUD you should be able to get 1.20216 times more JPY for a CAD.
AUDJPY = 64.201
64.201 x 1.20216 = CADJPY = 77.17987
DISEQUILLIBRIUM:
But the actual market price is CADJPY=76.974. Which means there is a disequilibrium between what the actual rate is. It can be quantified as the difference, -0.20587. I've taken that concept and expanded it to all currencies in a pretty large spreadsheet. The aggregate disequilibrium is accounted for each pair.
CURRENCY WEIGHT:
For this example, both the AUD is putting -0.20587 "weight" on the CADJPY and the CAD is putting -0.20587 "wieght" on the AUDJPY. This is collected for each individual currency and added together to represent the weight.
INDEX STRENGTH:
For example:
EUGBP 0.91447
USD/GBP 0.86211
CHF/GBP 0.87428
CAD/GBP 0.60099
AUD/GBP 0.50116
NZD/GBP 0.50600
JPY/GBP 0.007776594
ZAGBP 0.0484013
NOKGBP 0.0717705
HKD/GBP 0.110299
CNH/GBP 0.119747
SGD/GBP 0.588505
TRY/GBP 0.129911
SEK/GBP 0.0821385
DKK/GBP 0.12234
PLN/GBP 0.200372
MXN/GBP 0.0348339
RUB/GBP 0.0106524
Which averages out to 12.20271181 for the GBP. When this is done for each currency and added together which comes to 80.2174589.
GBP 12.20271181 15.21%
EUR 10.70881522 13.35%
USD 10.43321516 13.01%
CHF 9.209341569 11.48%
CAD 7.268234336 9.06%
SGD 7.16468796 8.93%
AUD 6.058258744 7.55%
NZD 6.065011193 7.56%
PLN 2.411473714 3.01%
TRY 1.541615401 1.92%
DKK 1.441292277 1.80%
CNH 1.411273128 1.76%
HKD 1.290361376 1.61%
SEK 0.952565391 1.19%
NOK 0.839225708 1.05%
ZAR 0.54313985 0.68%
MXN 0.507674255 0.63%
JPY 0.094083269 0.12%
RUB 0.074478539 0.09%
I've found that charting isn't needed to understand what prices should be now. They help in understanding what motivates people to have money exposed. Charts are in the psychological part of trading.
Edit: The JPY pairs are calculated times 0.01, that's why it's index is greater than RUB. I guess I can't post the charts anymore.
submitted by butstillkeepitreal to Forex [link] [comments]

MAME 0.215

MAME 0.215

A wild MAME 0.215 appears! Yes, another month has gone by, and it’s time to check out what’s new. On the arcade side, Taito’s incredibly rare 4-screen top-down racer Super Dead Heat is now playable! Joining its ranks are other rarities, such as the European release of Capcom‘s 19XX: The War Against Destiny, and a bootleg of Jaleco’s P-47 – The Freedom Fighter using a different sound system. We’ve got three newly supported Game & Watch titles: Lion, Manhole, and Spitball Sparky, as well as the crystal screen version of Super Mario Bros. Two new JAKKS Pacific TV games, Capcom 3-in-1 and Disney Princesses, have also been added.
Other improvements include several more protection microcontrollers dumped and emulated, the NCR Decision Mate V working (now including hard disk controllers), graphics fixes for the 68k-based SNK and Alpha Denshi games, and some graphical updates to the Super A'Can driver.
We’ve updated bgfx, adding preliminary Vulkan support. There are some issues we’re aware of, so if you run into issues, check our GitHub issues page to see if it’s already known, and report it if it isn’t. We’ve also improved support for building and running on Linux systems without X11.
You can get the source and Windows binary packages from the download page.

MAMETesters Bugs Fixed

New working machines

New working clones

Machines promoted to working

New machines marked as NOT_WORKING

New clones marked as NOT_WORKING

New working software list additions

Software list items promoted to working

New NOT_WORKING software list additions

Source Changes

submitted by cuavas to emulation [link] [comments]

MAME 0.215

MAME 0.215

A wild MAME 0.215 appears! Yes, another month has gone by, and it’s time to check out what’s new. On the arcade side, Taito’s incredibly rare 4-screen top-down racer Super Dead Heat is now playable! Joining its ranks are other rarities, such as the European release of Capcom‘s 19XX: The War Against Destiny, and a bootleg of Jaleco’s P-47 – The Freedom Fighter using a different sound system. We’ve got three newly supported Game & Watch titles: Lion, Manhole, and Spitball Sparky, as well as the crystal screen version of Super Mario Bros. Two new JAKKS Pacific TV games, Capcom 3-in-1 and Disney Princesses, have also been added.
Other improvements include several more protection microcontrollers dumped and emulated, the NCR Decision Mate V working (now including hard disk controllers), graphics fixes for the 68k-based SNK and Alpha Denshi games, and some graphical updates to the Super A'Can driver.
We’ve updated bgfx, adding preliminary Vulkan support. There are some issues we’re aware of, so if you run into issues, check our GitHub issues page to see if it’s already known, and report it if it isn’t. We’ve also improved support for building and running on Linux systems without X11.
You can get the source and Windows binary packages from the download page.

MAMETesters Bugs Fixed

New working machines

New working clones

Machines promoted to working

New machines marked as NOT_WORKING

New clones marked as NOT_WORKING

New working software list additions

Software list items promoted to working

New NOT_WORKING software list additions

Source Changes

submitted by cuavas to MAME [link] [comments]

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